In July, global equities saw modest gains with the MSCI World Index up 2.0%. U.S. markets performed well despite President Trump announcing new tariffs. Emerging market equities continued to outperform, gaining 4.8%. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, citing moderation in economic activity during the first half of the year. Bond markets declined slightly by 0.2% (NZD Hedged), as yields rose, while local bond markets gained 0.5%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.25%, leaving room for easing if inflation declined as expected.  The S&P/NZX50 rose 1.8% over the month, reflecting cautious optimism, while underperforming Australia where the ASX200 returned 2.4% (AUD) for the month.

August saw strong corporate earnings, moderating inflation and the promise of lower interest rates. The MSCI World Index ended the month up 2.1% in local currency (2.7% in unhedged NZD). The information technology sector (especially artificial intelligence and semiconductor companies) was the primary driver of the market's growth. U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on a weakening labour market increased expectations of a rate cut in September.  The global bond market was influenced by a combination of factors, including the Fed’s stance, economic data, geopolitical events, and ongoing tariff discourse, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index finishing up 0.4% (NZD hedged).

Australian equities delivered a strong return of 3.1% (AUD). Meanwhile, the New Zealand share market lagged but remained positive, ending the month up 0.9%. NZ Bonds returned 1.2% as downward pressure on the OCR intensified.

September was the fifth month in a row with gains for global stock markets. The MSCI World Index rose 3.2% in September, slightly below its five-month average of 3.4%. Technology stocks led the way, boosted by growth in AI. Emerging markets also did well, with Taiwan and Korea—home to big tech companies like TSMC and Samsung—up 7.1%. Bonds had positive returns too, with global bonds up 0.6% and local bonds up 1.3%.

The US Fed cut rates by 0.25% in September, while debate increased about whether the next RBNZ cut in early October would be 0.25% or 0.5%. In contrast, the S&P/ASX200 Index fell by -0.8%, dragged down by an inflation surprise that was well above the RBA’s forecast. As a result, interest rate cut expectations were pushed out into 2026. Locally, the S&P/NZX50 rose by 3.0% as unemployment steadied, consumer confidence improved, and inflation showed signs of easing. Gold prices jumped as investors grew worried about rising geopolitical tensions.