Market update – Quarter ending 30 June 2025

April brought significant market volatility, mainly due to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China. President Trump's proposed tariffs led to a sharp sell-off in global equities early in the month. However, as trade negotiations progressed and some tariffs were rolled back, markets began to recover, with the MSCI Index ending down -0.4% for the month. The Australian equity market remained resilient, while New Zealand faced ongoing domestic economic concerns, with indexes returning 3.6% and -3.0%, respectively. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.9% for the month, as yields initially spiked due to inflation concerns but later stabilised with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious approach. The Bloomberg NZ Bond Index gained 1.1% for the month, following a 0.25% rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand aimed at supporting economic growth. In real assets, global listed property (down -0.4%) and global listed infrastructure (up 0.2%) delivered mixed results while gold prices continued to rise as investors sought safe-haven assets throughout the month.

Global equities continued their late-April rally in May, with the MSCI World Index returning 5.9%. This strong performance was driven by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, following a 90-day tariff pause, with the technology sector contributing significantly due to strong earnings announcements. Emerging markets also rallied, benefiting from a softer U.S. dollar. Australian and New Zealand equities performed well, returning 4.2% (ASX200) and 4.3% (NZX50) respectively, supported by easing global trade tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar and interest rate cuts from their central banks. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index finished the month down -0.4%, with the NZ bond market also returning -0.4% as yields on longer-dated maturities rose alongside the global bond market.

Global Equity markets saw a continuation of the post-tariff recovery in June, with the MSCI World Index rising 3.8% in local currency terms and the tech sector leading the gains. Emerging Market equities posted even stronger returns, up 4.9% (MSCI Emerging Markets Index in local currency), with the Korean share market and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - each about 10% of the MSCI Index - both notable performers. Closer to home, the New Zealand and Australian equity markets delivered positive returns of 1.5% and 1.4% (AUD) respectively. Bond markets also delivered positive returns, with weak economic data increasing expectations of further interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets such as gold and cash continued to attract capital amidst continuing uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment.

This information has been prepared by Mercer (N.Z.) Limited. The information contained in this article is intended for general guidance only. It does not take into account your particular financial situation or goals. Before making any investment decision, you should refer to the Product Disclosure Statement or consult an appropriately qualified financial adviser.

21 August 2025