Market update – Quarter ending 30 June 2025
April brought significant market volatility, mainly due to rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China. President Trump's proposed tariffs led to a sharp sell-off in global equities early in the month. However, as trade negotiations progressed and some tariffs were rolled back, markets began to recover, with the MSCI Index ending down -0.4% for the month. The Australian equity market remained resilient, while New Zealand faced ongoing domestic economic concerns, with indexes returning 3.6% and -3.0%, respectively. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.9% for the month, as yields initially spiked due to inflation concerns but later stabilised with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious approach. The Bloomberg NZ Bond Index gained 1.1% for the month, following a 0.25% rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand aimed at supporting economic growth. In real assets, global listed property (down -0.4%) and global listed infrastructure (up 0.2%) delivered mixed results while gold prices continued to rise as investors sought safe-haven assets throughout the month.
Global equities continued their late-April rally in May, with the MSCI World Index returning 5.9%. This strong performance was driven by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, following a 90-day tariff pause, with the technology sector contributing significantly due to strong earnings announcements. Emerging markets also rallied, benefiting from a softer U.S. dollar. Australian and New Zealand equities performed well, returning 4.2% (ASX200) and 4.3% (NZX50) respectively, supported by easing global trade tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar and interest rate cuts from their central banks. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index finished the month down -0.4%, with the NZ bond market also returning -0.4% as yields on longer-dated maturities rose alongside the global bond market.
Global Equity markets saw a continuation of the post-tariff recovery in June, with the MSCI World Index rising 3.8% in local currency terms and the tech sector leading the gains. Emerging Market equities posted even stronger returns, up 4.9% (MSCI Emerging Markets Index in local currency), with the Korean share market and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - each about 10% of the MSCI Index - both notable performers. Closer to home, the New Zealand and Australian equity markets delivered positive returns of 1.5% and 1.4% (AUD) respectively. Bond markets also delivered positive returns, with weak economic data increasing expectations of further interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets such as gold and cash continued to attract capital amidst continuing uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment.
21 August 2025